The UFC returns this Saturday in the Windy City of Chicago, headlined by women’s bantamweight top contender Holly Holm vs Valentina Shevchenko.
The main event is a feature women’s bantamweight bout with serious title implications in a division that lacks some star power in the absence of Ronda Rousey. Holm knocked out Rousey to claim the title and arguably the greatest upset in all of mma, before being submitted by Miesha Tate in the last stanza of their fight back in
March, a bout that Holm was ahead on all the scorecards heading into the fifth round. A long time boxing world champion, and kickboxing world champion, Holm’s mma career has lived up to her hype. Going nine straight victories before blasting out Rousey, Holm looked like she was going to take over as the face of women’s mma. A victory here over Shevchenko would propel Holm back to title contention with a brand new champion in Amanda Nunes in waiting.
Valentina Shevchenko is a decorated kickboxer with an extensive muay thai pedigree of numerous world titles and victories over huge names in the kickboxing world such as Caley Reece and Joanna Jedrzejczyk (now UFC 115lb champion). While being an mma practitioner since 2003, Shevchenko was 7-0 by 2006 before a four year lay off. On return she was defeated by the game veteran Liz Carmouche before going on a four fight win streak to earn her UFC call. On promotional debut she beat Sarah Kaufmann before dropping a decision to now champion Nunes in her last outing, on the same night Holm was defeated.
Holm’s use of range is her best weapon. She remains on the outside with a long jab and excellent lateral movement, allowing her to enter her opponent’s space without being hit with counters in return. Holm often ends her striking combinations with long front kicks and side kicks to again keep her opponents at distance. Holm doesn’t throw a whole lot of round kicks, but when they come they do a serious damage such as the head kick that floored Rousey. Shevchenko is also a distance fighter out of the southpaw stance. This is where their comparisons stop. Shevchenko cuts off the cage and moves just enough to stay at her range. She often allows the opponent to step in before throwing her counters to score. Holm has a very kinetic style, while Shevchenko is all about efficiency. She always fires back when hit, especially with the right hook followed by her left round kick or left straight punch, very much the muay thai bread and butter of landing the final shot to win over the judges. Having a strong clinch is where Shevchenko can dominate. Her throws and sweeps are serious to behold. On the floor she is very limited, but in this fight I don’t see either women rushing for the takedown, and in the case of a sweep I see it going back to the feet rather quick.
Where I see see this fight being won is a boring five round decision. It’s a fight for the purists, not the casuals. The muay thai style of waiting to counter is just not as appreciated in the mma world as it is inside a ring. In the cage the aggression and speed must be shown and not just the technique. For me I see Holm gaining her rhythm and timing from the second round on and coming away with the decision. Shevchenko struggles to fight at the higher tempo and without the serious KO power like someone like Nunes I see her being competitive but losing a rather cagey fight.
The gem of this card is undoubtedly the co-main event. Former Strikeforce lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez vs Brazilian striker Edson Barboza has the potential for fight of the year.
This is an opportunity for Barboza to cement himself as one the elite at 155. A pure striker with devastating power in his arsenal, Barboza is arguably the best striker in the entire division and has the potential to beat anyone on his day. Barboza is a pure striker blessed with exceptional speed and athleticism. He came into the UFC with a vicious kicking arsenal, but over the years he has complemented those punishing shots with an increasingly slick boxing game courtesy of Mark Henry, who is best known for coaching Frankie Edgar and Eddie Alvarez. In that vein, the jab has become the foundation of Barboza's game. He fires it constantly to both the head and the body, using it to gauge distance, score points and set a rhythm. The Brazilian excels at using it as he steps back to ward off a pressuring opponent. The right low kick and left round kick to the body are devastating when thrown by Barboza and real eye catchers also. Correct footwork and great spatial awareness make Barboza difficult to pressure. While he struggled with getting backed up to the fence early in his career, he now excels at planting his feet, throwing a combination and then immediately pivoting to get out into open space. That is almost the full summary of Barboza. He's nearly impossible to take down and even harder to hold on the mat. It's not easy to hold him in the clinch either. The Brazilian's ability to stay off the fence is a massive aid to him here, as his footwork and command of distance make it hard to get in on his hips in the first place.
Melendez can do it all. His jab is also very good which he uses to stay in distance and as a range finder. His right hand has enough pop to hurt you and he often follows it with an elbow for good measure. The striking isn’t fancy like Barboza, but Melendez can fight you going forward or going back, he can stay in the pocket and slug with you or pop in and out. These are signs of a good veteran. A solid takedown game is where Melendez prospers.Against the fence he chains both his double and single legs to get you down before unleashing vicious ground and pound. He is an excellent guard passer which allows him to strike from the top.
A year out from his failed drug test and a career of tough fights and gradual wear and tear will be too much for Melendez to overcome. Melendez is known for his epic fight with Diego Sanchez where they just slugged it out for three rounds. To win he will have to pressure and take down Barboza. The Brazilian should be to fast for Melendez and be able to plant his feet to land his big shots. I fancy Barboza to stop the former Strikeforce Champion for the first time and put himself only a fight away from a title shot.
Fight Picks :
Holly Holm vs Valentina Shevchenko - Holm
Edson Barboza vs Gilbert Melendez - Barboza
Francis Ngannou vs Bojan Mihajlovic - Ngannou
Felice Herrig vs Kailin Curran - Herrig
Frankie Saenz vs Eddie Wineland - Saenz
Darren Elkins vs Godofredo Pepey - Pepey
Kamaru Usman vs Alexander Yakovlev - Usman
Michel Prazeres vs J.C. Cottrell - Prazeres
Alex Oliveira vs James Moontasri -Oliveira
Hector Urbina vs George Sullivan - Urbina
Jim Alers vs Jason Knight - Alers
Luis Henrique vs Dmitry Smolyakov - Smolyakov
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